A shocking new survey released Friday by Mercury Analytics finds nearly 20% of the likely Democratic voters polled would cross over in the general election and vote for Republican front-runner Donald Trump.
When crossover voters were asked how sure they were, 63% of the Democrats who said they would crossover were “100% sure.”
Mercury Analytics dial-tested Trump’s first campaign ad, which touches on a variety of issues including ISIS, radical Islamic terrorism and illegal immigration. The firm found 25% of Democrats “agree completely” that the ad raised some good points; while 44% of Democrats agree “completely” or “somewhat.”
The image below is of the last screen of the dial-testing scores, which shows the ad rated the best among Democrat defectors. The video, which is not embedable, can be seen here.
“We expected Trump’s first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact – or in fact negative impact – on Democratic or Independent voters,” says Mercury Analytics CEO Ron Howard, a self-identified Democrat.
“However, what we see is that among a segment of Democratic and Independent voters who don’t like the ‘messenger’ of Trump – the issues he is raising (Immigration, Terrorism) are real concerns they share.
He adds, “The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent minded, successful ‘get it done’ businessman – is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous soundbites to disqualify him in the voters’ minds.”
According to the survey firm, “the primary messages of Trump’s ad resonated more than Democratic elites would hope.”
The poll also found 14% of Republicans said they would crossover to vote for Hillary Clinton, though a significantly smaller percentage — 39% — said they were “100% sure.”
The survey, conducted January 6-8, 2016, was a national sample of 916 “likely voters.”
Here’s the ad Mercury Analytics finds so many Democrats like:
Howard’s advice to Trump: “Mr. Trump’s style today concerns and turns off many. However, the issues he raises are real to many voters, and if he gets the nomination, reduces his hyperbolic comments while remaining straight talking, and presents a smart problem-solving and successful business persona, he has the opportunity to reduce the Trump fear factor and raise his acceptability, while Hillary’s negatives may be much harder to reduce.”
A similarly shocking poll conducted in September found a significant percentage of black voters would support Trump in a head-to-head matchup with Hillary Clinton.
The SurveyUSA poll showed in a hypothetical matchup with Hillary Clinton, Trump was ahead 45% to 40%.
But digging into the racial breakdown of the respondents is revealing. For example, the poll finds 25% of black respondents say they would vote for Trump over Clinton.
The Republican to capture the largest share of the black vote was Bob Dole in 1996. He earned just 12% of the votes of African-Americans.