The media is loving Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump in the national polls, but she still lags among the voting blocs that put President Obama in the White House.
Obama’s “coalition of the ascending” was responsible for getting him elected in 2008 and re-elected in 2012.
His campaign focused on massive support and turnout among millennials, blacks, and women. Despite their inclinations toward the Democratic Party, they don’t find themselves nearly as supportive for Clinton as they were for Obama in ’12.
Four of the most recent polls tracked by Real Clear Politics that breakdown voters support along the lines of race, gender and age, show a substantial decline in support for Clinton, compared to Obama’s numbers in 2012.
The most recent Fox News, Quinnipiac, NBC/Wall Street Journal, The Economist/YouGov and CBS polls show Clinton winning on average 46 percent of millennials, 86 percent of blacks, and 50 percent of women.
When you consider polls that add third party candidates like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein into the mix, Clinton’s numbers drop further, she wins just 43 percent of millennials, 86 percent of blacks, and 48 percent of women.
These numbers should be more heavily weighed considering the Libertarian candidate will appear on the ballot in all 50 states and the Green Party will appear in a majority states.
While Clinton is winning all of those demographic groups, there’s a distinct decrease from Obama’s numbers in 2012 when he won 60 percent of millennials, 93 percent of blacks, and 55 percent of women. That amounts to a 17 percentage point lag among millennials, 7 percent among blacks, and 7 percent among women for Clinton.
Clinton is very likely to will all three demographic groups but their lack of excitement and lukewarm reception towards the Democratic nominee could mean a noticeable decline in turnout.
A simple two percent overall decline in millennials, blacks, and women turnout because they lack the excitement for Clinton that they had for Obama could easily cost her millions of votes and the presidency.