The hypocritical grandstanding and delay tactics from Democrats during the confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh seems to be washing out their predicted “blue wave” in the 2018 midterms.
With only five weeks left before the big day, about 49 percent of American voters are backing the generic Democratic candidate in local races for the U.S. House, while 42 percent back the Republican candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released Tuesday.
On Sept. 12, those numbers were 52 percent supporting Democrats and 38 percent supporting Republicans.
Per Quinnipiac poll, Democrats now have a +7 lead on the generic ballot; their lead cut in half since mid-September (when it was +14)
“The numbers suggest the big blue wave may have lost some of its momentum as House races tighten.” https://t.co/bRICRM8VlI
— Andrew Clark (@AndrewHClark) October 2, 2018
“The numbers suggest the big blue wave may have lost some of its momentum as House races tighten,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of Quinnipiac University Poll.
This is also the smallest lead Democrats have had on the Quinnipiac generic ballot poll since early July.
— Andrew Clark (@AndrewHClark) October 2, 2018
Andrew Clark, with the National Association of Manufacturers, pointed out on Twitter that “This is also the smallest lead Democrats have had on the Quinnipiac generic ballot poll since early July.”
The big game-changer, of course, is the Kavanaugh confirmation circus. The most recent Quinnipiac poll started on the same day California college professor Christine Blasey Ford testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee to accuse Kavanaugh of unwanted dry humping during a high school drinking party more than three decades ago. Kavanaugh testified the same day that the incident never happened, and also forcefully defended his reputation against other uncorroborated claims of sexual shenanigans in college.
Of course, some folks attempted to downplay the significance of the polling trajectory, claiming the Sept. 12 Quinnipiac poll was an “outlier” as other polls showed a smaller Democratic lead.
Good example of why you shouldn’t just look at one poll (or one pollster). Current RCP average is Dems +7.4, this one is Dems +7. But because last Q poll was an outlier (Dems +14), hed is “GOP gaining ground.” Maybe they are! But just comparing last 2 Q polls isn’t worth much. https://t.co/CHFCG2CdGY
— Ben Pershing (@benpershing) October 2, 2018
“Good example of why you shouldn’t just look at one poll (or one pollster). Current RCP average is Dems +7.4, this one is Dems +7. But because last Q poll was an outlier (Dems +14), hed is ‘GOP gaining Ground.’ Maybe they are! But just comparing last 2 Q polls isn’t worth much,” National Journal editor Ben Pershing posted to Twitter.
Either way, pollsters seem to agree the generic Democratic lead in the 2018 midterms is slipping, at least to some degree, according to Twitchy.
The generic ballot has tightened a bit, to about an 8-point Democratic edge. It was 9 points a couple weeks ago. https://t.co/nSPeKmDTNc
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 2, 2018
Meanwhile, Democrats’ House chances have fallen slightly to 3 in 4 from our forecast (from 4 in 5 before). And their Senate chances are down to 2 in 7 (from 3 in 10 before). https://t.co/yAkOpb3IoN
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 2, 2018
“The generic ballot has tightened a bit, to about an 8-point Democratic edge. It was 9 points a couple of weeks ago,” Five Thirty Eight’s Nate Silver posted to Twitter. “Meanwhile, Democrats’ House chances have fallen slightly to 3 in 4 from our forecast (from 4 in 5 before). And their Senate chances are down to 2 in 7 (from 3 in 10 before).”
The new reality doesn’t seem to be setting in on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi or other Democrats, who are already plotting impeachment proceedings and a long list of congressional investigations they plan to launch when they wrest control of Congress.
Just a few days ago, Pelosi told an audience in Texas that “I anticipate that I’ll be the person with the gavel in hand” next year, referring to the Speaker of the House position, The American Mirror reported.
It’s the same kind of elitist attitude Hillary Clinton portrayed in the months leading up to the November 2016 presidential election.
Happy birthday to this future president. pic.twitter.com/JT3HiBjYdj
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) October 26, 2016
On October 26, just days before the vote, Clinton posted a picture of herself as a child on Twitter with the message: “Happy birthday to this future president.”
Her confidence was undoubtedly fueled by numerous polls and news sites across the country that gave Trump less than a 10 percent chance of winning the presidency.
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