A social media data and analytics firm is monitoring online chatter about 2020 presidential candidates, and has “uncovered some tell-tale signs pertaining to how the field is shaping up.”
SociallyMined, a boutique agency working to analyze social media data for both Republican and Democrat candidates, took a look at trends on Twitter between March 1 and March 7, and the biggest loser was former vice president Joe Biden.
According to the numbers, Biden was mentioned a measly 1,818 times that week, trailing behind the pack of leading Democrats hoping to win the nomination in 2020, including Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
“With the exception of Joe Biden, all 2020 candidates included within the data-set have already declared their intentions to run for president as of March 11, 2019,” according to a SociallyMined news release. “With rumors circling regarding former VP Joe Biden’s entry into the race, the undeclared candidate has been trending downward on Twitter.”
Biden has repeatedly teased a 2020 run, with top Democrat lawmakers telling The Hill this week Biden is in the final preparations before making the big announcement. Biden has led every national poll for the 2020 Democratic primary since October, according to RealClearPolitics, but it’s a different story online.
Biden’s 1,810 Twitter mentions during the first week of March falls about 1,000 short of Warren’s 2,830 mentions and comes in more than 8,000 mentions fewer than Harris. Sanders, meanwhile, was mentioned 118,991 times during the week.
The types of mentions also factor in.
Only about 40 percent of those who mentioned Biden were positive, while 27 percent of mentions were negative and 33 percent were deemed neutral. In February, 55 percent of Biden mentions were positive.
Harris, Sanders, and Warren all trended toward more positive mentions during the same time frame, with Harris jumping from 44 percent positive in February to 49 percent in March, Sanders increasing from 35 percent positive to 41 percent positive, and Warren going from 39 percent positive in February to 57 percent positive during the first week of March.
All of the Democrats vying for the 2020 nomination, however, pale in comparison to President Trump, who was mentioned more than all of them combined.
“Within the Democratic ranks, Bernie Sanders has built a strong, engaged community, that leads the pack,” SociallyMined reports. “However, during the same period, Donald Trump had more than double the mentions (244,092) of Bernie Sanders (118,991).”
In total, the four Democratic candidates amassed 133,539 mentions.
The Twitter talk about Trump is also much more positive, despite the mainstream media’s daily barrage of negative coverage about the president.
The data shows 64 percent of Twitter mentions about Trump were positive, 16 percent negative, and 20 percent neutral, figures that have “remained consistent” in recent months. Trump’s percentage of positive Twitter mentions was 64 percent last month.
SociallyMined’s synopsis:
With the 2020 race underway, the Democratic hopefuls all have encouraging signs of life. Sanders leads in mentions, Harris is gaining momentum, Warren compares favorably to Trump (albeit with a fraction of mentions), and Biden is holding steady considering he has not officially entered the race. However, Trump’s mentions, consistent positive sentiment, and low negativity are proving to be strong foundational data points that make him a strong opponent with a highly engaged community.
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